Forecasts for economy


There’s been little overall change in forecasts between May and June, according to the latest Forecasts for the UK economy from the Treasury.


The fourth-quarter range for inflation under the Retail Prices Index remains at 2.4% up to 4.0% with a midpoint (median) figure of 3.1%. However, several forecasters expect inflation to be higher. Oxford Economics thinks it will be up to 3.5% rather than their previous forecast of 3.2%; and EY Item Club now thinks it will be 3.4% rather than 3.1%.


Against these increases, forecasters expects workers living standards to suffer as the prediction for growth in average earnings over the year has been cut to 2.5% by Oxford, while EY’s forecast rise remains at 2.8%.


The range of forecasts for average earnings growth is from 2.3% up to 3.2%, with a median of 2.7%.


https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/data-forecasts#2018