Pay and prices

Labour Research Department three monthly pay figures

Percentage increases on lowest basic rates (by agreements covered

For the three months up to and including: this payround

AUG 99-

AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL JUL 00

All agreements

3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.6 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0

Private sector

3.0 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.9 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.8 2.8 3.0 2.8 2.9

Public sector

3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.5 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0

Manual

3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.6 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0

Non-manual

3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.8 3.0 3.0

All industries

3.0 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7

All services

3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0

For the 12 months up to and including:

AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL

by agreements

3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0

by workers covered

3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3

Note to table: The figures show median (midpoint) pay settlements among all the agreements monitored through the LRD pay and conditions database. Separate figures showing the weighted median, (by number of workers covered) appear in the 12-monthly table.

Prices 1999-2000

retail % in- price index crease Jan 87=100 on year ago 1999

August 165.5 1.1

September 166.2 1.1

October 166.5 1.2

November 166.7 1.4

December 169.3 1.8

2000

January 166.6 2.0

February 167.5 2.3

March 168.4 2.6

April 170.1 3.0

May 170.7 3.1

June 171.1 3.3

July 170.5 3.3

August 170.5 3.0

Earnings 1999-2000

average % increase earnings on index year ago 1995=100 1999

July 118.9 4.4

August 119.6 4.9

September 119.8 4.6

October 120.7 5.1

November 121.1 5.1

December 122.6 6.2

2000

January 123.8 6.5

February 123.7 5.5

March 123.9 5.2

April 122.7 4.6

May 122.6 4.0

June 123.7 3.8

July 123.5 3.8

Other pay analysts

Confederation of British Industry (manufacturing) 2.6%

Industrial Relations Services (whole economy) 3.0%

Incomes Data Services (most settlements) 2.0%-3.9%

Average earnings increases by sector

% change on year to July

Manufacturing 4.4% Services 3.5%

Latest figures for full-time weekly earnings

all workers £417.90

all female £346.90

all male £459.40

all manual £324.80

all non-manual £463.50

female manual £236.3

female non-manual £367.30

male manual £343.4

male non-manual £547.00

Source: New Earnings Survey 1999 update in Labour Market Trends, September 2000

Based on unpublished series for average earnings index which excludes arrears of pay.

Prices - underlying increase and forecasts

underlying rate for August 1.9%

Forecasts 4th quarter 2000 4th quarter 2001

RPI/underlying rate RPI/underlying rate

Average 3.1 2.0 2.5 2.4

Oxford Economic Forecasting 3.3 2.0 2.6 2.2

NIESR 3.4 1.8 2.7 2.2