Pay and prices

Labour Research Department three monthly pay figures, BR July 00

LRD Bargaining Report Pay and prices July 2000 0007

Percentage increases on lowest basic rates (by agreements covered)

For the three months up to and including: this payround

AUG 99-

JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUN 00

All agreements

3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.7 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0

Private sector

2.9 3.0 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.6 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.8

Public sector

3.5 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.5 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0

Manual

2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.6 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0

Non-manual

3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.5 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.8 3.0

All industries

2.6 2.8 2.8 3.0 2.8 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7

All services

3.3 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.3 3.0

For the 12 months up to and including:

JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN

by agreements

3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0

by workers covered

3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.3 3.3 3.0

Note to table: The figures show median (midpoint) pay settlements among all the agreements monitored through the LRD pay and conditions database. Separate figures showing the weighted median, (by number of workers covered) appear in the 12-monthly table.

Prices 1999-2000

retail % in- price index crease Jan 87=100 on year ago 1999

June 165.6 1.3

July 165.1 1.3

August 165.5 1.1

September 166.2 1.1

October 166.5 1.2

November 166.7 1.4

December 169.3 1.8

2000

January 166.6 2.0

February 167.5 2.3

March 168.4 2.6

April 170.1 3.0

May 170.7 3.1

June 171.1 3.3

Earnings 1999-2000

average % increase earnings on index year ago 1995=100 1999

May 117.8 4.1

June 119.0 5.2

July 118.9 4.4

August 119.6 4.9

September 119.8 4.6

October 120.7 5.1

November 121.1 5.1

December 122.6 6.2

2000

January 123.8 6.5

February 123.7 5.5

March 123.9 5.2

April 122.7 4.6

May 122.6 4.0

Other pay analysts

Confederation of British Industry (manufacturing) 2.6%

Industrial Relations Services (whole economy) 3.0%

Incomes Data Services (most settlements) 2.0%-3.9%

Average earnings increases by sector

% change on year to May

Production 4.6% Manufacturing 5.0% Services 3.6%

Latest figures for full-time weekly earnings £ per week

all workers 420.30 all female 349.70

all male 461.80 all manual 326.20

all non-manual 466.30 female manual 238.30

female non-manual 370.10 male manual 344.60

male non-manual 549.90

Source: New Earnings Survey 1999 projected to January 2000; Labour Market Trends, June 2000 Based on unpublished series for average earnings index which excludes arrears of pay.

Prices - underlying increase and forecasts

underlying rate for June 2.2%

Forecasts 4th quarter 2000 4th quarter 2001

RPI/underlying rate RPI/underlying rate

Average 3.1 2.0 2.4 2.4

Oxford Economic Forecasting 3.3 2.0 2.6 2.2

NIESR 3.4 1.8 2.7 2.2