Labour Research Department three monthly pay figures

Percentage increases on lowest basic rates (by agreements covered)

For the three months up to and including:

FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN this payround AUG 01-JAN 02

All agreements 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.2 3.6

Private sector 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.0

Public sector 3.3 3.0 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7

Manual 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.5 3.5 3.0 3.2

Non-manual 3.3 3.2 3.5 3.3 3.3 2.8 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.2 3.5 3.7

All industries 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.0 3.0

All services 3.3 3.2 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.0 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.7

For the 12 months up to and including:

FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN

by agreements 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2

by workers covered 3.3 3.3 4.0 3.9 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.1

Note to table: The figures show median (midpoint) pay settlements among all the agreements monitored through the LRD pay and conditions database. Separate figures showing the weighted median, (by number of workers covered) appear in the 12-monthly table.

Other pay analysts

Confederation of British Industry (manufacturing) (three months to Oct 2001) 2.6%

Industrial Relations Services (median, three months to end December 2001) 3.0%

Incomes Data Services (most settlements Sep-Nov 2001) 2.0%-3.9%

Prices

retail price index Jan 87=100 % annual increase %increase excl. mortgage payments 2000

December 172.2 2.9 2.0

2001

January 171.1 2.7 1.8

February 172.0 2.7 1.9

March 172.2 2.3 1.9

April 173.1 1.8 2.0

May 174.2 2.1 2.4

June 174.4 1.9 2.4

July 173.3 1.6 2.2

August 174.0 2.1 2.6

September 174.6 1.7 2.3

October 174.3 1.6 2.3

November 173.6 0.9 1.8

December 173.4 0.7 1.9

2001

January 173.3 1.3 2.6

Average earnings indices

% annual rise Whole economy (1995=100)% annual rise Manufacturing - Services Private sector Public sector 2000

November (r) 126.4 4.2 4.9 4.0 4.3 4.0

December (r) 128.3 5.2 5.0 5.2 5.2 4.3

2001

January 128.0 4.1 3.8 4.3 4.3 3.3

February 131.0 6.7 5.2 7.3 7.5 3.0

March 128.5 4.1 5.3 3.9 4.0 4.5

April 128.7 4.8 5.2 4.6 4.7 5.5

May 128.8 4.6 4.7 4.4 4.3 5.8

June 129.5 4.8 5.0 4.6 4.7 5.3

July 129.7 4.4 4.6 4.2 4.1 5.8

August 130.4 4.3 4.7 4.0 4.0 5.9

September 130.8 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.1 5.5

October (r) 131.1 4.3 3.9 4.3 4.0 5.6

November (r) 131.2 3.7 2.8 3.9 3.5 5.0

December (p) 131.2 2.0 2.3 1.7 1.2 5.1

Headline rate1 for December 3.3 3.0 3.3 2.9 5.2

1 Average of earnings increases for latest three months compared to year earlier (r) revised (p) provisional

Source: National Statistics

Average of average earnings forecasts for 4th quarter 2002 is 4.3% (HM Treasury).

Inflation forecasts

RPI forecasts (and underlying inflation excluding mortgage interest payments)

4th quarter 2002

Average 2.3 (2.2)

Oxford Economic Forecasting 2.1 (1.9)

NIESR 2.2 (1.8)

Source: HM Treasury Forecasts for the UK economy, January 2002

Latest figures for full-time weekly average earnings

all workers £430.90

all male £473.80

all female £359.40

all manual £345.20

all non-manual £469.00

male manual £366.10

female manual £243.60

male non-manual £547.70

female non-manual £378.30

Source: New Earnings Survey 2000, projected to July 2001 (Labour Market Trends, December 2001)