Pay and prices

Average earnings indices

Whole economy % annual rise (1995 % annual Manu- Services Private Public =100) rise facturing sector sector 2000

June 123.5 3.8 4.5 3.5 3.9 3.5

July 124.0 4.0 4.5 3.8 4.0 3.4

August 124.8 4.2 4.1 4.3 4.4 3.4

Sept 125.2 4.2 4.5 4.1 4.5 3.2

October 125.8 4.1 4.2 4.1 4.2 3.5

Nov 126.4 4.4 4.7 4.3 4.5 3.9

Dec 128.1 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.3

2001

January 128.6 4.3 3.8 4.5 4.5 3.3

February 131.1 6.5 5.2 7.1 7.3 3.0

March 128.4 4.3 5.3 4.1 4.3 4.5

April 128.9 4.8 5.3 4.7 4.8 5.5

May 128.8 4.6 4.7 4.3 4.3 5.8

June (r) 129.5 4.8 5.1 4.6 4.7 5.3

July (p) 129.5 4.4 4.7 4.1 4.0 5.9

Headline

rate1 for July 4.6 4.8 4.4 4.3 5.6

1 Average of earnings increases for the latest three months compared with a year earlier

Source: National Statistics

Average of average earnings forecasts for 4th quarter 2001 is 4.7% and 4th quarter 2002 is 4.6%. (HM Treasury).

Inflation forecasts

RPI forecasts (and underlying inflation -

excluding mortgage interest payments)

4th quarter 4th quarter 2001 2002

Average 1.8 (2.2) 2.6 (2.4)

Oxford Economic Forecasting 1.6 (1.9) 2.6 (2.4)

NIESR 1.8 (2.3) 2.3 (2.1)

Source: HM Treasury Forecasts for the UK economy, August 2001

Latest figures for full-time weekly average earnings

all workers £430.90 all female £359.30

all male £473.70 all manual £345.10

all non-manual £468.90 female manual £243.60

female non-manual £378.20 male manual £366.10

male non-manual £547.70

Source: New Earnings Survey 2000, projected to January 2001 (Labour Market Trends, June 2001)