Key economic indicators

Earnings and pay

% annual rise Whole economy (1) Manufacturing (1) Services (1) Private sector (1) Public sector (1) LRD average pay deals (2) 2002

July 3.9 3.7 4.0 3.8 3.8 3.0

August 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.7 3.0 3.0

September 3.7 3.4 3.7 3.6 3.9 3.0

October 3.7 3.9 3.6 3.5 4.1 3.0

November 4.0 4.1 4.1 3.8 4.8 3.0

December 3.4 4.2 3.1 3.0 4.9 3.0

2003

January 3.3 3.8 3.1 2.9 5.1 3.0

February 2.5 4.4 2.0 1.9 5.2 3.0

March 4.4 6.6 4.1 4.3 5.0 3.0

April 2.7 2.6 2.8 2.1 5.1 3.2

May (r) 3.3 3.2 3.4 2.9 4.6 3.2

June (r) 3.2 3.0 3.4 2.7 5.4 3.2

July (p) 3.7 3.1 4.0 3.3 5.2 3.4

Headline rate for July3 3.4 3.1 3.6 3.0 5.1

1 Average weekly earnings in Great Britain, seasonally adjusted, as monitored by National Statistics. 2 The midpoint of pay settlements for the latest three months as monitored on the Labour Research Department's PayLine database. 3 The average of the earnings increase figures for the latest three months compared with a year earlier. (r) revised (p) provisional

Retail prices

Retail price index (Jan 1987=100) % annual increase % increase excluding mortgage payments 2002

July 175.9 1.5 2.0

August 176.4 1.4 1.9

September 177.6 1.7 2.1

October 177.9 2.1 2.3

November 178.2 2.6 2.8

December 178.5 2.9 2.7

2003

January 178.4 2.9 2.7

February 179.3 3.2 3.0

March 179.9 3.1 3.0

April 181.2 3.1 3.0

May 181.5 3.0 2.9

June 181.3 2.9 2.8

July 181.3 3.1 2.9

August 181.6 2.9 2.9

Source: National Statistics

Full-time average weekly earnings

£pw

All workers 484.20

All male 535.40

All female 399.50

All non-manual 537.00

Female non-manual 422.20

Male non-manual 636.00

All manual 362.20

Female manual 261.50

Male manual 383.70

Source: New Earnings Survey April 2002 figures updated by rise in average earnings between April 2002 and July 2003.

Inflation and Earnings Forecasts

2003 2004

Retail Price Index

Average rise 2.6 2.7

Range 2.1-3.2 1.7-3.6

Earnings, whole economy

Average rise 3.6 4.1

Range 2.8-4.3 3.0-5.3

Figures are for fourth quarter of year. Average of around 40 independent forecasts published by the Treasury.