Key economic indicators

Earnings and pay

% annual rise Whole economy1 Manufacturing1 Services1 Private sector1 Public sector1 LRD average pay deals2 2001

July 4.4 4.6 4.2 4.1 5.8 3.0

August 4.3 4.7 3.9 3.9 5.9 3.5

September 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.1 5.5 3.5

October 4.3 3.9 4.3 4.0 5.6 3.7

November 3.8 2.8 4.0 3.5 5.0 3.5

December 2.1 2.5 1.9 1.5 5.0 3.5

2002

January 2.9 3.1 2.7 2.5 4.7 3.0

February 2.5 2.6 2.2 2.1 4.4 3.0

March 3.5 3.0 3.3 3.2 4.4 2.7

April 3.9 3.3 4.0 4.0 3.5 3.0

May 4.0 3.4 4.2 4.1 3.5 3.0

June 3.8 3.7 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.0

July (p) 4.1 3.8 4.3 4.2 3.9 2.8

Headline rate for July3 4.0 3.6 4.1 4.0 3.7

1 Average weekly earnings in Great Britain, seasonally adjusted, as monitored by National Statistics. 2 The midpoint of pay settlements for the latest three months as monitored on the Labour Research Department's PayLine database. 3 The average of the earnings increase figures for the latest three months compared with a year earlier. (p) provisional

Retail prices

Retail price index (Jan 1987=100) % annual increase % increase excluding mortgage payments 2001

June 174.4 1.9 2.4

July 173.3 1.6 2.2

August 174.0 2.1 2.6

September 174.6 1.7 2.3

October 174.3 1.6 2.3

November 173.6 0.9 1.8

December 173.4 0.7 1.9

2002

January 173.3 1.3 2.6

February 173.8 1.0 2.2

March 174.5 1.3 2.3

April 175.7 1.5 2.3

May 176.2 1.1 1.8

June 176.2 1.0 1.5

July 175.9 1.5 2.0

August 176.4 1.4 1.9

Source: National Statistics

Full-time average weekly earnings

£pw

All workers 458.50

All male 505.60

All female 380.20

All non-manual 508.70

Female non-manual 402.90

Male non-manual 600.50

All manual 347.10

Female manual 249.20

Male manual 368.40

Source: Estimates for January 2002 in Labour Market Trends July 2002 updating New Earnings Survey April 2001

Inflation and Earnings Forecasts

2002 2003

Retail Price Index

Average rise 2.0 2.8

Range 1.2-3.1 1.6-4.0

Earnings, whole economy

Average rise 3.7 4.4

Range 2.9-4.4 3.3-5.2

Figures are for fourth quarter of year in each case. Average of around 40 independent forecasts published by the Treasury.

Key indicators

Inflation +1.4%

Average earnings +4.1%