Labour market indicators

Latest Office for National Statistics (ONS) data suggest growing real earnings and employment, but with falling vacancies.

Payrolled employment grew by 1.2% compared with September 2022, with the biggest increases in health and social work. By contrast, in administrative and support services, it fell by 29,000, according to HMRC data.

Vacancies (July to September) fell by 43,000 to 988,000 (the 15th consecutive fall). But they were still considerably higher than the pre-Covid peak of 865,000 (winter of 2018-19).

Payroll data for September suggest that median monthly pay stood at £2,264, up by 5.7% compared with a year earlier.

Other earnings data point to a slight slowing in the growth rate in average weekly earnings in August.

It dropped to 6.9% (down from 8.2%) on total pay including bonus payments and 7.6% (down from 7.9%) on regular pay.

However, compared with CPIH inflation — consumer prices inflation with a housing element — the ONS says real average weekly earnings grew in August by 0.5% on total pay and 1.3% on regular pay.

These figures paint a picture of pay growing positively in recent months, after shrinking every month from November 2021 until April-May 2023.