Pay gaining on falling inflation

The median pay rise achieved on all pay rates in the three months to March was 5.3%, according to LRD Payline. Pay growth is staying steady despite being lower than its summer peak of 8%, and is gaining ground on falling inflation. RPI inflation is now at 4.3%, down slightly on the previous month, while CPI has fallen to 3.2%, although the measure that includes housing and rent (CPIH), is at 3.8%. While public sector deals are thin on the ground this month, pay growth has now overtaken the private sector after lagging behind for most of the last year.

The latest official figures on earnings show regular pay (excluding bonuses) stayed steady at 6% over the year to February. The AWE measure of wage growth also shows public sector pay creeping ahead at 6.1%.