UK economy enters recession

With the UK economy entering recession, there are fears that unemployment will rise. But there’s little sign of that yet in official data. The unemployment rate for July-September 2022 decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 3.6%.

Earnings are rising, although nowhere near as fast as inflation. Average regular pay growth for the private sector has risen to 7.0% (6.6% averaged over July-September) compared with 1.9% in the public sector (2.2% averaged). Outside of the pandemic, it’s the largest recorded growth in the private sector and the largest difference between the private and public sectors.

While vacancies fell by 46,000 to 1,225,000, they are still at historically high levels. According to the ONS statistics authority, an increasing number of businesses are now reporting holding back recruitment because of economic pressures.

• Full-time average weekly earnings by occupation: This month’s figures (see below) are affected by a change in the way occupations are classified by the ONS, particularly the range of jobs classed as “professional” and “associate professional”.

Their estimated earnings levels, which have been uprated in line with Average Weekly Earnings, are now substantially lower than those previously published in Labour Research.