Labour market indicators

Uncertain jobs growth coupled with slowing wage growth were the highlights in labour market data released in December.

For the headline estimate of workforce jobs (employees and self-employed) a record 36.8 million was reached in September 2023, apparently up 210,000 from June.

But with increased uncertainty around estimates based on the Labour Force Survey (LFS), “experimental” figures generated by the Office for National Statistics (applying administrative data to LFS base numbers) tell a story of little change.

In the 16-64 age range, the employment rate remained at 75.5% (up 32,000 comparing August-October 2023 with May-July).

The unemployment rate was also static at 4.3% (1.424 million), and economic inactivity 20.9% (8.703 million).

The number of vacancies continued to fall although still above pre-pandemic levels (949,000, September to November). Disputes saw the loss of 131,000 working days, most in health and social work, but involved only 49,000 workers.

Year-on-year, whole economy earnings growth dropped noticeably in October from 8.5% to 6.0% (total pay) and from 7.7% to 6.3% (regular pay excluding bonuses), the lowest since early 2023.