Unemployment set for big surge
A surge in unemployment is likely, thanks to the coronavirus pandemic, but official statistics lag far behind fast-moving events.
Forecasts vary widely and must depend in part on the success and longevity of the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS).
December-February figures released on 21 April showed an increase of 22,000 unemployed compared with a year earlier, rising to 1.36 million. Short-term unemployment (up to six months) is growing. But as employment also increased (by 352,000) the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.0%.
The Office for Budget Responsibility thinks there could soon be an extra two million out of work, and there were nearly a million successful applications for Universal Credit in the last two weeks of March.
Independent forecasters have raised their predictions for the fourth quarter unemployment rate (on average) from 4.0% to 6.4% (6.9% among new forecasts, according to Forecasts for the UK Economy by HM Treasury).
While some see the rate dropping back below 4%, the most pessimistic predict over 12%. However, the CJRS furlough scheme (now due to run until the end of June) is clearly making a big difference. Within days of opening for claims, more than 300,000 applications were received, covering 2.2 million employees.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peoplenotinwork/unemployment