Labour market indicators

There was a cautious official return to using Labour Force Survey data last month as part of a recommended “suite” of indicators including workforce jobs, the claimant count and Pay As You Earn (PAYE) Real Time Information.

Employment growth has slowed over the last year. The 16-64 employment rate remained at 75.0% although 16+ employment was up. Payrolled employee data showed only a small recent increase (31,000 compared with 401,000 on the year).

Vacancies fell again by 26,000 to 932,000 (but are still above pre-pandemic levels). While the 16+ unemployment rate was down (3.8%) the claimant count was up by 61,200 on the year to 1.579 million. (The economic inactivity rate remained largely unchanged.)

Average weekly earnings continued to outpace inflation, with recent estimates revised upwards. For the year to December there was growth of 5.6% in total pay, including bonuses, and 6.2% in regular pay (ranging from 3.8% in construction to 7.1% in finance).

PAYE data pointed to annual pay growth of 6.4%. Days lost and workers involved in labour disputes have fallen over time, but stoppages bounced back to 243 in December 2023.