Forecasts for economy


The economy is expected to grow by 2.6% this year, according to Forecasts for the UK economy, a monthly comparison of independent forecasts collated by the Treasury.


The 2.6% growth figure is the median from a range of forecasts from the City and academia, which runs from 2.4% growth up to 3.0% growth for 2015. 


At the time of chancellor George Osborne’s July Budget, the independent advisers to the Treasury, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), forecast 2.4% growth.


For next year, the range is wider — from 1.4% growth up to 3.0%, with a median of 2.4%. The OBR forecast is for 2.3% growth.


On retail price inflation, the range of forecasts for the fourth quarter of this year runs from 0.8% up to 1.6%, with a median rise of 1.2%. By the fourth quarter 2016, the range of forecasts runs from 0.8% up to 3.7%, with a median of 2.8%.


As the latest pay round gets rolling, the earnings forecasts will be of interest to negotiators. Average earnings growth this year is expected to come to 2.7%, with the forecasts ranging from 1.4% growth up to 3.5% growth. Come 2016, the median rise is up to 3.3%, with the range both higher and narrower at 2.2% up to 4.1%.


www.gov.uk/government/collections/data-forecasts