Stockpiling distorts UK economic growth data


Official figures show that the economy grew as first thought in the first quarter of 2019.


UK gross domestic product (GDP) in volume terms was estimated to have increased by 0.5% in first quarter of the year, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said, unrevised from its first estimate for this quarter.


Services and construction output estimates have been revised upwards, with the latest estimates from the ONS showing increases of 0.4% and 1.4% respectively in the first quarter of the year. In contrast, production output has been revised downwards and is now estimated to have increased by 1.1% in the first quarter.


In production output, manufacturing output is now estimated to have increased by 1.9% on the back of pre-Brexit stock piling in anticipation of leaving the EU at the end of March, although the ONS was unable to clearly quantify the effect of this.


In the first quarter of the year, the economy grew by 1.8% compared with the same quarter a year ago, that is up from 1.4% in the final quarter 2018 on the same quarter 2017.


www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/quarterlynationalaccounts/januarytomarch2019