Pay and prices

Percentage increases on lowest basic rates (by agreements covered)

For the three months up to and including:

MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR this payround AUG 01-APR 02

All agreements 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.0 3.0 2.7 3.0 3.7

Private sector 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.2 3.1 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.6 3.0

Public sector 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.7

Manual 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.0 2.7 2.6 3.0 3.0

Non-manual 3.3 3.3 2.8 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.2 3.2 3.5 3.0 2.8 3.7

All industries 3.1 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.8

All services 3.5 3.5 3.0 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.2 3.0 3.5 3.7

For the 12 months up to and including:

MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR

by agreements 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5

by workers covered 3.9 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 3.6

Note to table: The figures show median (midpoint) pay settlements among all the agreements monitored through the LRD pay and conditions database. Separate figures showing the weighted median, (by number of workers covered) appear in the 12-monthly table.

Prices

retail price index Jan 87=100 % annual increase %increase excl. mortgage payments 2001

March 172.2 2.3 1.9

April 173.1 1.8 2.0

May 174.2 2.1 2.4

June 174.4 1.9 2.4

July 173.3 1.6 2.2

August 174.0 2.1 2.6

September 174.6 1.7 2.3

October 174.3 1.6 2.3

November 173.6 0.9 1.8

December 173.4 0.7 1.9

2002

January 173.3 1.3 2.6

February 173.8 1.0 2.2

March 174.5 1.3 2.3

April 175.7 1.5 2.3

Other pay analysts

Confederation of British Industry (manufacturing) (three months to March 2002) 2.3%

Industrial Relations Services (median, three months to end March 2002) 2.5%

Incomes Data Services (median, second quarter 2002) 3.0%

Average earnings indices

Whole economy (1995=100) % annual rise Manufacturing Services Private sector Public sector 2001

February (r) 129.7 5.7 5.4 6.7 6.9 3.1

March (r) 128.7 4.3 5.2 4.1 4.1 4.5

April 128.7 4.8 5.2 4.6 4.7 5.5

May 128.8 4.6 4.7 4.4 4.3 5.8

June 129.5 4.8 5.0 4.6 4.7 5.3

July 129.7 4.4 4.6 4.2 4.1 5.8

August 130.4 4.3 4.7 4.0 4.0 5.9

September 130.8 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.1 5.5

October 131.1 4.3 3.9 4.3 4.0 5.6

November 131.2 3.8 2.8 4.0 3.5 5.0

December 131.0 2.1 2.5 1.9 1.5 5.0

2002

January (r) 132.0 2.9 3.1 2.7 2.5 4.7

February (r) 132.9 2.4 2.6 2.4 2.2 4.4

March (p) 132.9 3.3 3.0 3.0 3.0 4.4

Headline rate1 for March 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.6 4.5

1 Average of earnings increases for latest three months compared to year earlier (r) revised (p) provisional

Source: National Statistics

Average of average earnings forecasts for 4th quarter 2002 is 3.6% (HM Treasury).

Inflation forecasts

RPI forecasts (and underlying inflation - excluding mortgage interest payments)

4th quarter 2002 4th quarter 2003

Average 2.4 (2.3) 2.8 (2.4)

Oxford Economic Forecasting 2.2 (1.9) 3.1 (2.3)

NIESR 2.5 (2.0) 2.7 (2.5)

Source: HM Treasury Forecasts for the UK economy, May 2002

Latest figures for full-time weekly average earnings

all workers £443.50

all female £366.00

all male £489.50

all manual £338.40

all non-manual £491.80

female manual £241.40

female non-manual £388.00

male manual £359.30

male non-manual £581.40

Source: New Earnings Survey 2001, projected to October 2001 (Labour Market Trends, April 2002)