Pay and prices

Labour Research Department three monthly pay figures

Percentage increases on lowest basic rates (by agreements covered)

For the three months up to and including: this payround

AUG 01

DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV NOV 01

All agreements 3.5 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.3 3.4 3.7 3.5 3.7

Private sector 3.5 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.5 3.5 3.5

Public sector 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.0 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.7

Manual 3.5 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.5 3.5 3.5

Non-manual 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.0 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.7

All industries 3.5 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.2 3.2 3.2

All services 3.8 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.0 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.7

For the 12 months up to and including:

DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV

by agreements

3.0 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.2

by workers covered

3.0 3.1 3.3 3.3 4.0 3.9 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1

Note to table: The figures show median (midpoint) pay settlements among all the agreements monitored through the LRD pay and conditions database. Separate figures showing the weighted median, (by number of workers covered) appear in the 12-monthly table.

retail % %increase price index annual excl. mortgage Jan 87=100 increase payments 2000

October 171.6 3.1 2.0

November 172.1 3.2 2.2

December 172.2 2.9 2.0

2001

January 171.1 2.7 1.8

February 172.0 2.7 1.9

March 172.2 2.3 1.9

April 173.1 1.8 2.0

May 174.2 2.1 2.4

June 174.4 1.9 2.4

July 173.3 1.6 2.2

August 174.0 2.1 2.6

September 174.6 1.7 2.3

October 174.3 1.6 2.3

November 173.6 0.9 1.8

Other pay analysts

Confederation of British Industry

(manufacturing) (three months to Sept 2001) 2.9%

Industrial Relations Services

(median, three months to end October 2001) 3.1%

Incomes Data Services

(most settlements Sep-Nov 2001) 2.0%-3.9%

Average earnings indices

Whole economy % annual rise (1995 % annual Manu- Services Private Public =100) rise facturing sector sector 2000

Sept 125.4 4.2 4.6 4.1 4.5 3.3

October 126.0 4.1 4.3 4.2 4.3 3.5

Nov 126.6 4.4 4.7 4.3 4.5 3.9

Dec 127.7 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.3

2001

January 128.0 4.1 3.8 4.3 4.3 3.3

February 131.0 6.7 5.2 7.3 7.5 3.0

March 128.5 4.1 5.3 3.9 4.0 4.5

April 128.7 4.8 5.2 4.6 4.7 5.5

May 128.8 4.6 4.7 4.4 4.3 5.8

June 129.5 4.8 5.0 4.6 4.7 5.3

July 129.7 4.4 4.6 4.2 4.1 5.8

August 130.4 4.3 4.7 4.0 4.0 5.8

September 130.9 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.1 5.6

October (p) 131.5 4.4 4.0 4.4 4.1 5.7

Headline

rate1 for October 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.0 5.7

1 Average of earnings increases for the latest three months compared with a year earlier

Source: National Statistics

Average of average earnings forecasts for 4th quarter 2001 is 4.8% and 4th quarter 2002 is 4.5%. (HM Treasury).

Inflation forecasts

RPI forecasts (and underlying inflation - excluding mortgage interest payments)

4th quarter 4th quarter 2001 2002

Average 1.5 (2.3) 2.5 (2.3)

Oxford Economic Forecasting 1.3 (2.2) 2.3 (2.1)

NIESR 1.5 (2.3) 2.2 (1.8)

Source: HM Treasury Forecasts for the UK economy, November 2001

Latest figures for full-time weekly average earnings

all workers £430.90 all female £359.40

all male £473.80 all manual £345.20

all non-manual £469.00 female manual £243.60

female non-manual £378.30 male manual £366.10

male non-manual £547.70

Source: New Earnings Survey 2000, projected to July 2001 (Labour Market Trends, December 2001)