Key economic indicators

Earnings and pay

% annual rise Whole economy1 Manufacturing1 Services1 Private sector1 Public sector1 LRD average pay deals2 2001

May (r) 4.7 4.5 4.5 4.5 5.8 3.2

June 4.8 5.0 4.6 4.7 5.3 3.2

July 4.4 4.6 4.2 4.1 5.8 3.0

August 4.3 4.7 3.9 3.9 5.9 3.5

September 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.1 5.5 3.5

October 4.3 3.9 4.3 4.0 5.6 3.7

November 3.8 2.8 4.0 3.5 5.0 3.5

December 2.1 2.5 1.9 1.5 5.0 3.5

2002

January 2.9 3.1 2.7 2.5 4.7 3.0

February 2.5 2.6 2.2 2.1 4.4 3.0

March 3.5 3.0 3.3 3.2 4.4 2.7

April (r) 3.9 3.3 4.0 4.1 3.5 3.0

May (p) 4.0 3.5 4.2 4.1 3.4 3.0

Headline rate for May3 3.8 3.3 3.8 3.8 3.8

1 Average weekly earnings in Great Britain, seasonally adjusted, as monitored by National Statistics. 2 The midpoint of pay settlements for the latest three months as monitored on the Labour Research Department's PayLine database. 3 The average of the earnings increase figures for the latest three months compared with a year earlier. (p) provisional (r) revised

Retail prices

Retail price index (Jan 1987=100) % annual increase % increase excluding mortgage payments 2001

April 173.1 1.8 2.0

May 174.2 2.1 2.4

June 174.4 1.9 2.4

July 173.3 1.6 2.2

August 174.0 2.1 2.6

September 174.6 1.7 2.3

October 174.3 1.6 2.3

November 173.6 0.9 1.8

December 173.4 0.7 1.9

2002

January 173.3 1.3 2.6

February 173.8 1.0 2.2

March 174.5 1.3 2.3

April 175.7 1.5 2.3

May 176.2 1.1 1.8

June 176.2 1.0 1.5

Source: National Statistics

Full-time average weekly earnings

£pw

All workers 443.50

All male 489.50

All female 366.00

All non-manual 491.80

Female non-manual 388.00

Male non-manual 581.40

All manual 338.40

Female manual 241.40

Male manual 359.30

Source: Estimates for October 2001 in Labour Market Trends April 2002 updating New Earnings Survey April 2001

Inflation and earnings Forecasts

2002 2003

Retail Price Index

Average 2.3 2.8

Range 1.0-3.2 1.9-4.4

Earnings, whole economy

Average 3.6 4.4

Range 2.7-4.6 3.5-5.2

Figures are for fourth quarter of year in each case. Average of around 40 independent forecasts published by the Treasury.

Key indicators

Inflation +1.0%

Average earnings +4.0%