THE ECONOMY THIS MONTH

KEY INDICATORS

Inflation + 1.2%

Average

earnings + 4.6%

Retail prices

% increase on year earlier RPI except Retail price % increase mortgage Tax and index (Jan on year interest price 1987=100) ago payments index1 1998

October 164.5 3.1 2.5 3.1

November 164.4 3.0 2.5 2.9

December 164.4 2.8 2.6 2.6

1999

January 163.4 2.4 2.6 2.3 February 163.7 2.1 2.4 2.0

March 164.1 2.1 2.7 1.9 April 165.2 1.6 2.4 1.0 May 165.6 1.3 2.1 0.7 June 165.6 1.3 2.2 0.8

July 165.1 1.3 2.2 0.7 August 165.5 1.1 2.1 0.5

September 166.2 1.1 2.1 0.5 October 166.5 1.2 2.2 0.7 1. The tax and price index measures the increase in gross earnings needed

to compensate for changes in tax as well as prices.

Unemployment1

ILO2 Want work4 Claimants (000s) %3 (000s) % (000s) % 1998 October 1,802 6.2 4,315 14.9 1,323 4.6 November 1,791 6.2 4,280 14.8 1,325 4.6 December 1,799 6.2 4,278 14.8 1,311 4.6 1999

January 1,839 6.3 4,282 14.8 1,307 4.5

February 1,833 6.3 4,235 14.6 1,311 4.6

March 1,822 6.2 4,240 14.6 1,308 4.5

April 1,814 6.2 4,242 14.6 1,291 4.5

May 1,797 6.2 4,268 14.7 1,285 4.5

June 1,760 6.0 4,222 14.4 1,280 4.4

July 1,728 5.9 4,189 14.3 1,236 4.3 August 1,714 5.9 4,147

14.2 1,212 4.2 September 1,721 5.9 4,160 14.3 1,220 4.2 October 1,204 4.2 1. Seasonally adjusted. 2. The three-monthly average of the ILO unemployed - the number of unemployed people who want a job and are ready to start work in two weeks and have looked for work in the past four weeks, according to the Labour Force Survey. 3. % of working population. 4. The average of the three months ending in each month of the number of workless people who have told the Labour Force Survey that they want a job, plus the number of government trainees plus the number of ILO unemployed. 28 Labour Research January 2000

Forecasts of annual percentage inflation rate and earnings increases

1999 2000

Retail Price Index

Treasury1 1.3 2.8

IRS2 1.2 2.8

Economist3 1.9 2.4

Earnings, whole economy

Treasury 4.5 4.4

IRS 4.1 4.4

Figures are for fourth quarter of year in each case.

1. Average of around 40 independent forecasts published by the Treasury in Economic Trends. 2. Average of 10 independent forecasters IRS Employment Review. 3. Economist poll of prices forecasts.

Average earnings indices1

Whole economy % annual rise (1995 % annual Manu- Services Private Public =100) rise facturing sector sector 1998 September 114.5 5.0 4.4 5.2 5.4 3.6 October 114.8 4.8 4.5 4.8 5.0 3.8 November 115.2 4.6 3.5 4.7 4.8 3.6 December 115.6 4.2 3.3 4.2 4.4 3.3 1999

January 116.4 4.6 4.0 4.7 4.7 4.0 February 117.2 5.0 3.4

5.4 5.2 4.2 March 117.8 4.9 3.4 4.8 5.0 4.1 April 117.2 4.0 3.5 3.9 3.8 4.7 May 117.8 4.1 3.4 4.2 3.9 4.7

June 119.0 5.2 3.4 6.0 5.3 4.9 July 118.9 4.4 3.5 4.9

4.5 4.2 August 119.6 5.0 4.0 5.4 5.3 3.8 September 119.8 4.6 4.3 4.9 4.7 3.9

Headline

rate for September2 4.7 4.0 5.0 4.8 3.9

1 Average weekly earnings in Great Britain, seasonally adjusted. 2. The average of the seasonally adjusted data for the latest three months compared with a year earlier. (p) provisional

Full-time average weekly earnings (GB)

£pw

All workers 400.10

All male 442.40

All female 326.50

All non-manual 443.00

Female non-manual 346.90

Male non-manual 525.50

All manual 315.00

Female manual 221.90

Male manual 335.00

Source: New Earnings Survey 1999