Analysts find pay deals steady at around 3%

The latest figures from the LRD PayLine database show that settlements for the three months to January 2004 have a median (midpoint) level of 3.1%, the same as that for the payround overall. The only significant variation is in the public sector which has a three-monthly median of 3.4% compared to the private sector's 3.0%.

Statistics from other pay analysts are very similar, with Industrial Relations Services reporting a three-monthly median of 3.0% to January 2004 whilst Incomes Data Services also have a median for the fourth quarter 2003 of 3.0%.

Average earnings

The annual increase in average earnings to December 2003 was 3.4%, with manufacturing earnings rising by 3.5% and services by 3.4%. Average earnings in the public sector rose by 4.3%, whilst in the private sector the average to December 2003 was 3.2%.

Prices

The latest inflation figures show a narrowing of the gap between the government's preferred measure, the Consumer Prices Index (CPI), and the Retail Price Index (RPI). Whilst the CPI to January 2004 was up at 1.4%, the all-items RPI was down to 2.6%.

The RPI excluding mortgage interest payments was also down to 2.4%.