Settlements remain steady at 3.0%

Our latest figures for settlements show little overall change on last month: the median for the three months to October is 3%, with little variation between the different sectors of the economy. The only significant variation is in manufacturing, but we believe the 4% figure to be a "blip" which will be revised as more settlements come in.

The other analysts quoted here agree with the 3% median pay figure for the latest quarter.

Earnings

The figures for full-time weekly average earnings are substantially different from previous ones. This is because we are now basing them on the new Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE) for April 2004, rather than April 2003 data from the New Earnings Survey (NES). As before, we apply the increase in the Average Earnings Index (AEI) from April to September to produce our estimates.

ASHE uses a new weighting system to estimate median earnings (see last month's Workplace Report); a detailed breakdown of the new ASHE figures is in this issue's news section.

The average earnings index has dropped back to 3.7% for the year to September, with manufacturing at 3.4% and services at 3.6%. The private sector rose by 3.5% compared with the public sector's 4.2%.

Inflation

The Retail Prices Index (RPI) rose by 3.3% for the year to October, and the RPI excluding mortgage interest payments rose by 2.1%.