Little activity in pay deals as inflation rises

This month's figures from our PayLine database of collective agreements are based on a fairly small selection of settlements, as the period October to December is one of the quieter parts of the pay round. In particular, the public sector produced so few settlements that we are unable to provide a reliable median (midpoint) figure.

We are also temporarily unable to provide an annual median for each sector, but hope that this will be resolved shortly.

The figures as set out show little variation from the overall median of 3.0%, apart from non-manual settlements with a median of 3.3%.

Earnings

The latest average earnings index from National Statistics shows that average earnings across the whole economy rose by 4.5% in the year to November 2004, but in manufacturing the rise was a mere 2.9%. Earnings in services rose by 4.5%, and the public sector remained ahead of the private sector with increases of 5.0% compared to 4.4%.

Inflation

Whichever measure is used, inflation has risen for the third month in succession. The all-items Retail Prices Index (RPI) in the year to December was 3.5%, up from the November figure of 3.4%. The RPI excluding mortgage interest payments (RPIX) rose from 2.2% in November to 2.5% in December. And the government's preferred measure, the Consumer Prices Index (CPI), went up to 1.6% from 1.5% the previous month.