Pay deals edge up

The latest figures from the Labour Research Department's Payline database show a slight upward movement in the three months to April with a median of 3.1% compared with the 3.0% that had been recorded over the previous 12 months.

The public sector remained ahead of the private sector with settlements running at 3.5% compared with 3.1% in the private sector, and manual settlements were ahead at 3.4% compared with 3.1% for non-manuals.

For the payround from August 2002 to April 2003 the 3.0% median held with services slightly ahead at 3.1% and the public sector at 3.5%.

Other pay analysts also show settlement levels picking up with Industrial Relations Services having a three month median to April of 3.0% compared with their 2.9% to March. Meanwhile figures from Incomes Data Services show a median for the second quarter of 2003 of 3.5%.

The latest figures for average earnings show a sharp upward movement to 4.3% for the year to March, but these figures are provisional and should be treated with caution. The three monthly average figure of 3.4% is a more reliable indicator.

Inflation was unchanged at 3.1% for the year to April, with the government's chosen measure of underlying inflation (excluding mortgage interest payments) also unchanged at 3.0%.

Forecasts suggest inflation will be between 2.3% and 2.6% in the final quarter of this year.