Workplace Report May 2000

Features: The economy this month

Unemployment

In the three-month period December to February unemployment as defined by the International Labour Organisation was 1,715,000 or 5.8%. The figure was 22,000 down on the previous quarter and 122,000 on a year earlier. The total included 1,032,000 men (6.3%) and 683,000 women (5.2%). The number of economically inactive people who wanted a job but had not looked for work in the last four weeks was 2,100,000.The number of claimants in March was 1,148,800 or 4.0%.

Inflation + 2.6%

Average

earnings + 5.5%

Retail prices

% increase on year earlier RPI except Retail price % increase mortgage Tax and index (Jan on year interest price 1987=100) ago payments index1 1999

March 164.1 2.1 2.7 1.9 April 165.2 1.6 2.4 1.0 May

165.6 1.3 2.1 0.7 June 165.6 1.3 2.2 0.8

July 165.1 1.3 2.2 0.7 August 165.5 1.1 2.1 0.5

September 166.2 1.1 2.1 0.5 October 166.5 1.2 2.2 0.7 November 166.7 1.4 2.2 0.9

December 167.3 1.8 2.2 1.3

2000

January 166.6 2.0 2.1 1.5

February 167.5 2.3 2.2 1.9

March 168.4 2.6 2.0 2.2

1 The tax and price index measures the increase in gross earnings needed to compensate for changes in tax as well as prices.

Unemployment1

ILO2 Want work3 Claimants (000s) % (000s) % (000s) % 1999

March 1,822 6.2 4,240 14.6 1,306 4.5

April 1,814 6.2 4,242 14.6 1,288 4.5

May 1,797 6.2 4,268 14.7 1,274 4.4

June 1,760 6.0 4,222 14.4 1,264 4.4

July 1,728 5.9 4,189 14.3 1,235 4.3 August 1,714 5.9 4,147 14.2

1,218 4.2 September 1,721 5.9 4,160 14.3 1,213 4.2 October 1,716 5.9 4,155 14.2 1,201 4.2

November 1,726 5.9 4,182 14.3 1,190 4.1

December 1,718 5.9 4,147 14.2 1,169 4.1 2000

January 1,737 5.9 4,146 14.2 1,161 4.0

February 1,715 5.8 4,165 14.1 1,157 4.0

March 1,149 4.0

1 Seasonally adjusted. 2 The three-monthly average of the ILO unemployed - the number of unemployed people who want a job and are ready to start

work in two weeks and have looked for work in the past four weeks,

according to the Labour Force Survey. 3 The average of the three months

ending in each month of the number of workless people who have told the

Labour Force Survey that they want a job, plus the number of government

trainees plus the number of ILO unemployed.

Forecasts of annual percentage inflation rate and earnings increases1

2000 2001

Retail Price Index

Average 2.9 2.4

Range 2.1-4.6 1.4-3.0

Earnings, whole economy

Average 5.1 4.6

Range 3.9-6.0 2.4-5.4

Figures are for fourth quarter of year in each case. 1 Average of around

40 independent forecasts published by the Treasury.

Average earnings indices1

Whole economy % annual rise (1995 % annual Manu- Services Private Public =100) rise facturing sector sector 1999

February 117.3 5.0 3.4 5.4 5.2 4.2 March 117.8 4.9 3.4 4.8

5.0 4.1 April 117.2 4.0 3.5 3.9 3.8 4.7 May 117.8 4.1 3.4 4.2 3.9 4.7

June 119.0 5.2 3.4 6.0 5.3 4.9 July 118.9 4.4 3.5 4.9

4.5 4.2 August 119.6 5.0 4.0 5.4 5.3 3.8 September 119.8 4.6 4.3 4.9 4.8 3.9

October 120.7 5.1 4.5 5.3 5.4 4.0

November 121.1 5.1 4.8 5.2 5.3 3.9

December 122.6 6.2 5.8 6.3 6.8 3.6

2000

January 123.8 6.5 5.6 6.8 6.9 4.5

February 123.7 5.5 4.6 5.6 5.7 4.5

Headline

rate for February2 6.0 5.3 6.2 6.5 4.2

1 Average weekly earnings in Great Britain, seasonally adjusted. 2 The

average of the seasonally adjusted data for the latest three months

compared with a year earlier.

(p) provisional

Full-time average weekly earnings (GB)

£pw

All workers 403.10

All male 445.30

All female 330.00

All non-manual 446.80

Female non-manual 350.40

Male non-manual 529.20

All manual 316.70

Female manual 224.40

Male manual 336.40

Source: Labour Market Trends March 2000 updating April 1999 New Earnings

Survey figures