Pay deals over 7% as inflation pauses

The mid-point (median) among pay increases remained at 7.2% on lowest basic rates over the three months to December.

The median increase is slightly higher in the private sector. A slight fall in November inflation (RPI 14%, CPI 10.7%) has been hailed as a possible turning point but that is still way above most pay settlements, not to mention October’s figures for growth in average weekly earnings (see AWE table).

And while there is talk of inflation falling “sharply” from mid-2023, the Bank of England has put up interest rates and predicts increased monthly mortgage payments, with households finding it harder to repay other types of debt (see page 3).