Labour market indicators

Employment is starting to trend downwards according to Office for National Statistics (ONS) data.

The number of payrolled employees in the UK fell by 18,000 (0.1%) between January and February 2024, while an early estimate showed a 0.2% decrease in March (although year on year employment is still up).

The Labour Force Survey, now seen as less reliable, shows a 74.5% employment rate, down on a year ago and in the latest quarter. The latest UK unemployment rate was 4.2% while the Claimant Count increased by 10,900 on the month and was up by 57,400 on the year at 1.583 million.

Vacancies at 916,000 were down by 1.4% from October to December 2023, while the ONS put the number of working days lost because of labour disputes in February 2024 at 106,000 (these figures have been challenged as an underestimate, see page 25 this issue).

Average Weekly Earnings continued to grow steadily, rising by 5.5% including bonus payments (Total Pay) and 6.0% excluding bonus payments (Regular Pay).

The pay trend as monitored by LRD Payline rose at a median rate of 5.1% (5.3% in the three months to March). These figures point to some much-needed growth in real pay compared with recent inflation rates.