Crystal balls a little cloudier on economy


Nine months into the year and forecasters are more pessimistic about 2018 economic growth.


In the Treasury’s September issue of Forecasts for the economy, the median GDP growth figure from around 40 City or academic forecasters is 1.3%; six months earlier the median forecast was for a 1.5% increase.


The range of the forecasts has narrowed also and is now between 1.2% and 1.5% against the March range of 0.6% up to 2.6%.


Forecasters still expect workers’ living standards to be hit — with earnings lagging behind inflation. September’s median forecast for 2018 average earnings is 2.6%, while in March the median forecast rise was 2.7%. 


Meanwhile, the median forecast rise for retail price inflation in the final quarter of 2018 is now 3.1% against 3.3%. 


The range for average earnings growth has narrowed to 2.2% up to 2.9% for September’s forecasts, against the March range of 2.3% up to 3.2%.


For inflation in the final quarter of the year, September’s range was 2.9% up to 3.8%, while back in March the range was 2.7% up 4.5%.


www.gov.uk/government/collections/data-forecasts