Labour Research February 2002

Features: Key Economic Indicators

Key Economic Indicators

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FULL-TIME AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS

£pw

All workers 430.9

All male 473.8

All female 359.4

All non-manual 469.0

Female non-manual 378.3

Male non-manual 547.7

All manual 345.2

Female manual 243.6

Male manual 366.1

* Source: Estimates for April 2001 from Labour Market Trends December 2001 updating New Earnings Survey April 2000

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Inflation and earnings forecasts

2002

Retail Price Index

Average 2.3

Range 1.2-4.1

Earnings, whole economy

Average 4.3

Range 3.4-6.0

Figures are for fourth quarter of year in each case. Average of around 40 independent forecasts published by the Treasury.

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Earnings and pay

% annual rise LRD average pay deals2 Whole economy1 Manufacturing1 Services1 Private sector1 Public sector1 2000

November 4.4 4.7 4.3 4.5 4.0 3.3

December 4.7 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.3 3.5

2001

January 4.1 3.8 4.3 4.3 3.3 3.2

February 6.7 5.2 7.3 7.5 3.0 3.2

March 4.1 5.3 3.9 4.0 4.5 3.2

April 4.8 5.2 4.6 4.7 5.5 3.2

May 4.6 4.7 4.4 4.3 5.8 3.2

June 4.8 5.0 4.6 4.7 5.3 3.2

July 4.4 4.6 4.2 4.1 5.8 3.0

August 4.3 4.7 3.9 3.9 5.9 3.2

September 4.3 4.2 4.4 4.1 5.5 3.4

October 4.4 4.0 4.4 4.1 5.6 3.7

November (p) 3.9 2.7 4.1 3.6 5.0 3.5

Headline rate

for November3 4.2 3.6 4.2 3.9 5.4

1 Average weekly earnings in Great Britain, seasonally adjusted, as monitored by National Statistics. 2 The midpoint of pay settlements for the latest three months as monitored on the Labour Research Department's PayLine database. 3 The average of the earnings increase figures for the latest three months compared with a year earlier. (p) provisional

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Retail prices

Retail price index (Jan 1987=100) % annual increase % increase excluding mortgage payments 2000

October 171.6 3.1 2.0

November 172.1 3.2 2.2

December 172.2 2.9 2.0

2001

January 171.1 2.7 1.8

February 172.0 2.7 1.9

March 172.2 2.3 1.9

April 173.1 1.8 2.0

May 174.2 2.1 2.4

June 174.4 1.9 2.4

July 173.3 1.6 2.2

August 174.0 2.1 2.6

September 174.6 1.7 2.3

October 174.3 1.6 2.3

November 173.6 0.9 1.8

December 173.4 0.7 1.9

* Source: National Statistics

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KEY INDICATORS

INFLATION +0.7%

AVERAGE EARNINGS +3.9%